The Defense Brief : May 2025
A lot to unpack this month—but the most significant piece of news, in my view, is the UK’s unveiling of its new 20-40-40 Military Doctrine. This is one of the first times a Western military has so explicitly embraced a future where humans step back and autonomy steps forward: 80% unmanned. The message is clear.
It marks a shift away from conventional mass toward autonomy.
20%: Tanks and armoured platforms—held back, used precisely, not prolifically
40%: Expendable strike drones—cheap, fast, effective
40%: Reusable ISR and loitering munitions
I think we’ll look back at this moment as a turning point—a Western army formally rewriting the logic of land warfare in the drone age.
Transatlantic defense trade is not dead
Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall announced a new European Centre of Excellence for missile production, based in Germany. It builds on their GMARS collaboration and Rheinmetall’s growing F-35 footprint in Weeze.
On the startup side, Saronic is expanding to the UK and just poached Paul Hollingshead from Anduril. Anduril itself is reportedly scouting a UK factory and Applied Intuition opened a UK office.
US defense-tech is clearly looking east. Not just for markets, but for allies, talent, and industrial capacity.
Trump announced the Golden Dome.
While details are light, the concept—a space-based missile shield—is audacious, and expensive. Estimates range from $175B to $500B.
But regardless of whether it ever materializes, it signals two things:
We’ve hit a real tipping point in the cost of launching things in space, embedded AI, and sensor networks. Some estimate that the costs for such constellations have dropped 40% over the past decade.
Space is now a tactical domain. What we see on the ground—jamming, spoofing, cyber attacks—is heading to orbit.
China's Next Move: Infantry-Sized Land Robots
New demonstrations from China show quadrupeds and humanoid robots traversing rivers, climbing stairs, and standing up after falls. Unlike the UGVs currently seen in Ukraine—which mostly serve logistical roles like resupply or casualty evacuation—these Chinese prototypes hint at something more ambitious: a push to replace dismounted infantry.
Drone Boats Just Entered the Missile Age
A Ukrainian naval drone recently shot down a Russian aircraft—marking the first known instance of a drone boat using a missile to kill an aerial target. It’s a symbolic and tactical milestone. Until now, drone boats have been kamikaze-style weapons. This changes that.
It also marks a phase shift: autonomy is evolving from one-way strikes to persistent, adaptive platforms across land, sea, and air. Naval warfare won’t look the same in five years.
Fundraisings:
Quantum Systems raised a €160m Series C, becoming Europe’s first dual-use unicorn, backed by Balderton.
Tekever, another dual-use leader, has also reportedly crossed the €1bn mark. Helsing is now not the sole European defense tech unicorn anymore.
Mach Industries raised a $100m round from Khosla for its vertical take-off cruise missile.
CX2, a defense-tech startup in electronic warfare, raised a $31m Series A from Point72, a16z, 8VC, and Pax.
Blue Water Autonomy raised $14m from Eclipse to build captain-less naval vessels.
Arondite, building foundational AI + autonomy software, raised $12m seed led by Index, with Creator Fund and Concept Ventures.
EdgeRunner AI, which develops Develop Air-Gapped, On-Device AI for the Warfighter, raised a $12m Series A with Madrona.
UNION came out of stealth with backing from Silent Ventures, aiming to rebuild U.S. battlefield munitions manufacturing.
PiLogic, which builds AI for radar signal interpretation and real-time battlefield decision-making, raised $4m seed led by Scout and Seraphim.